The coronavirus pandemic (20 percent in AZ, 15 percent in FL) was the second most important issue, followed by crime and safety (15-150, equal treatment of racial groups (14-14), and health care. McSally leads 56%-42% among likely voters from households with a military member or veteran, a more GOP-leaning population. Eller College of Management The state unemployment rate peaks at 11.8% in the first quarter of 2021, then gradually declines. Keep in mind that the projections may be subject to large revisions in the future as new information impacts the outlook. Total nonfarm payroll jobs are forecast to decline by 6.7% in 2020. The metro areas below the U.S. rate were Tucson at 9.9 percent, Phoenix at 9.7 percent, Prescott at 9.2 percent, and Sierra Vista-Douglas at 8.8 percent. For the June U.S. and Arizona forecasts, the baseline projections are assigned a 45% probability. Arizona jobs (establishment survey) were down by 230,000 from February to May 2020. Economy ratings aren't particularly robust; fewer than half in both states, 46% in Florida and 42% in Arizona, rate it positively. Keep in mind that an annual rate is the rate at which real GDP would decline if the quarterly rate were sustained for an entire year.
However, it will take time to get back to pre-outbreak levels of economic activity. It's also a near-even race in and around Tucson, which Clinton won in 2016. Real GDP is expected to bounce back with 5.2% growth in 2021 and a 4.7% gain in 2022. Even with the May increase, we still have a long way to go. (RELATED: Trump And Biden Are Tied In Florida, NBC News Poll Finds — Trump Leads Among Latino Voters, Biden Leads Among Seniors), MOON TOWNSHIP, PA – SEPTEMBER 22: President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Atlantic Aviation on September 22, 2020 in Moon Township, Pennsylvania. Results have margins of sampling error of 4.0 points among registered voters in Florida and 4.5 points among likely voters there and among registered and likely voters in Arizona, including design effects. 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events.
The June forecast for the U.S. was marked down by IHS Markit, compared to their May projections. In Arizona, by contrast, Biden has a 25-point enthusiasm deficit. (It was 58% in a national ABCNews/Washington Post poll last month.)
The seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate was 11.1 percent in June. This forecast incorporates updated national forecasts from IHS Markit released in early June. Based on the May employment release for the state, I have significantly revised the estimated impacts. 520-621-2165 Arizona’s GDP growth outpaced that of 46 other states including California (3.5%), Florida (3.5%), and Texas (3.2%). Majorities in Arizona (64%) and Florida (56%) plan to vote early or absentee, not on Election Day; that's much higher than in Wisconsin (44%) or Minnesota (39%). * All products require an annual contract; Prices do not include sales tax. Arizona’s rate remained below the national rate, at 14.7% in April and 13.3% in May. Once the outbreak is under control, the recovery should be steady. Partisan divisions -- Democrats-Republicans-independents -- are 28%-31%-35% among registered voters and 30%-35%-29% among likely voters in Florida, and 25%-31%-38% among registered voters and 27-34-32% among likely voters in Arizona. Employment recovers faster under this scenario, with jobs reaching their prior peak by the second quarter of 2021. Nebraska posted a -1.3 percent change in real GDP for the first quarter while the largest change was in New York and Nevada at -8.2 percent. Explains Why Trump Is Edging Out Biden In His Home State). In Florida, beyond his less-than-desired support from Hispanics, 52%, Biden comes back with 86% among Blacks. In Arizona, the presidential race stands at 47%-49% among registered voters and 49%-48% among likely voters.
Dollars). Both states typically do have high levels of early and absentee voting. Biden is comparatively weak in Florida among college-educated white women.